Bitcoin Holds Near $64K Ahead of Fed Decision as AI Stocks Weaken

Bitcoin traded near $64,000 on Tuesday, recovering from earlier losses as investors prepared for one of the most uncertain U.S. Federal Reserve meetings in years. While AI-driven technology stocks extended their recent decline, the leading cryptocurrency remained relatively stable, reinforcing expectations that Bitcoin may be less sensitive to the upcoming interest rate decision than traditional risk assets.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently assign a 70% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, while a 30% chance remains for a surprise 25-basis-point rate hike. Analysts attribute the unusual uncertainty to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's reduced reliance on forward guidance, leaving investors with fewer clues about the central bank's policy direction.

Block Scholes research analyst Thahbib Rahman described the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting as one of the most uncertain since 2015. He noted that only two Fed meetings over the past decade have seen markets more evenly divided over the expected outcome.

Despite the policy uncertainty, Bitcoin has continued to outperform many traditional assets throughout July. The cryptocurrency has gained roughly 6% this month, while the S&P 500 has remained largely flat. Meanwhile, a basket of semiconductor and AI-related stocks has fallen nearly 20%, highlighting growing divergence between crypto and technology equities.

K33 Research head of research Vetle Lunde said Bitcoin's consolidation near multi-year lows and the Nasdaq's extended rally have naturally weakened the historical correlation between the two markets. As a result, this week's Fed announcement could have a smaller impact on Bitcoin than during previous periods of monetary policy uncertainty.

Rahman added that shifting expectations surrounding inflation, geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and tariff concerns have caused significant market volatility over the past month. Nevertheless, sentiment toward digital assets has continued to improve.

Analysts believe that if Chair Warsh delivers even a moderately dovish message following the Fed meeting, Bitcoin could extend its recent outperformance while AI-related technology stocks remain under pressure, reinforcing the cryptocurrency's growing resilience amid broader market uncertainty.