Cardano Price Prediction: Can Leios Upgrade Help ADA Challenge XRP After 4% Drop?

Cardano (ADA) slipped 4% on July 6, trading around $0.18 and emerging as the weakest performer among the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. The decline comes as long liquidations and falling open interest increase selling pressure, even as Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson remains optimistic about the network’s long-term outlook.

During an interview with David Gokhshtein, Hoskinson said the upcoming Leios upgrade could increase Cardano’s transaction throughput by as much as 60 times, potentially allowing the blockchain to rival the XRP Ledger in speed. He also believes the upgrade could attract more users, boost decentralized finance (DeFi) activity, increase transaction volumes, and strengthen Cardano’s total value locked (TVL).

Hoskinson recently warned that Cardano’s DeFi ecosystem could weaken further if governance participants fail to approve critical network upgrades. His comments followed the shutdown of Cardano-based projects TapTools and JPG Store.

From a technical perspective, ADA has rallied roughly 28% since June 30, climbing from $0.14 to around $0.18. However, the recovery has stalled near the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at approximately $0.188, where sellers have regained control. A sustained breakout above this level with multiple daily closes could open the door for a move toward the 100-day SMA near $0.23. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains around 59, suggesting bullish momentum has not completely faded.

On-chain data paints a more cautious picture. Coinglass data shows Cardano’s long/short ratio has fallen to 0.88, its lowest level since June 30, indicating traders are increasingly positioning for additional downside. Open interest has also declined 10% to about $460 million after roughly $1.42 million in long positions were liquidated.

DeFiLlama data adds to the bearish outlook, with Cardano’s TVL dropping from 566 million ADA to 462 million ADA over the past week. Decentralized exchange trading activity has also slowed sharply, with daily DEX volume falling from around $12 million on July 4 to less than $1 million by July 6. While weakening DeFi metrics weigh on sentiment, a return of spot buying could trigger a short squeeze and support a stronger ADA price recovery.