Bitcoin Near Key Support as ETF Demand Weakens; VELVET Rally Faces Sell-the-News Risk

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $63,000 after briefly falling to around $59,000 earlier this week, raising concerns that the leading cryptocurrency could revisit levels seen in early 2024. According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin is currently trading only about 9% above its realized price of roughly $53,600. Realized price represents the average value at which BTC last moved on-chain and has historically acted as a major bear market support level.

Despite Bitcoin's recovery from recent lows, demand remains a significant concern. CryptoQuant reported that total Bitcoin demand contracted by 652,000 BTC last week, marking the largest decline since January 2022. Demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs has also weakened at the fastest rate since U.S. spot ETF launches in January 2024, suggesting that institutional buying pressure has shifted toward selling activity.

Investors have realized losses totaling 187,000 BTC over the past month. While notable, this figure remains below the 400,000 BTC loss event recorded in February and far below the 1.2 million BTC realized during the November 2022 market bottom. Analysts believe a sustainable recovery will require stronger ETF inflows, renewed participation from large investors, and a broader reduction in forced selling.

Meanwhile, VELVET has emerged as one of the crypto market’s biggest gainers. The token surged 125% over the past 24 hours and approximately 1,400% during the last week, reaching $1.76 as interest in pre-IPO perpetual exposure to companies such as SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic intensified. VELVET's market capitalization has climbed to roughly $745 million, although the protocol reportedly holds only around $840,000 in deposits.

With SpaceX's public listing now underway, analysts are warning of potential "sell-the-news" pressure. Concerns surrounding the relationship between VELVET's spot and futures markets have also surfaced, adding to volatility risks.

Elsewhere, XRP sentiment has fallen to its lowest level since October 2025, according to Santiment. While negative market sentiment often precedes rebounds, analysts caution that weak sentiment alone does not guarantee renewed demand.

In the derivatives market, crypto futures trading volume fell 9% to $180.9 billion while open interest remained near $105 billion, indicating traders are reducing new positions rather than exiting existing ones. Dogecoin (DOGE) futures open interest increased 5.7%, reflecting renewed bullish speculation.

Bitcoin, Monero (XMR), and Solana (SOL) recorded the strongest positive cumulative volume delta (CVD), signaling aggressive buying activity. In contrast, TON, TRX, and CC showed weaker order-flow dynamics.

Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) declined to 43.8%, suggesting traders expect reduced market uncertainty. Options market activity continues to favor bullish strategies, with long call butterfly positions indicating expectations for Bitcoin to climb toward $75,000 before consolidating through the end of July.