XRP Tests $1.40 Resistance as Breakout or Pullback Looms

Ripple’s XRP is again testing a heavily watched ‘$1.39–$1.40 resistance’ zone, a technical ceiling that traders say could determine the token’s short-term trend and shape expectations for the weeks ahead.

As of Sunday UTC (May 4), XRP (XRP) was trading around $1.3945, up 0.11% over the past 24 hours. The token remains under mild pressure on a weekly basis, down 2.43% over the last seven days, suggesting that near-term momentum has softened even as buyers continue to probe overhead supply.

According to market technicians and on-chain observers, XRP has spent the past one to two days attempting to push through the $1.39–$1.40 band on the four-hour chart. The area is widely viewed as a dense ‘supply zone’—a price range where prior rallies stalled as sellers stepped in and short-term holders took profits.

If bulls can produce a clean breakout—ideally accompanied by rising volume—some analysts argue the chart could be setting up an ‘inverse head-and-shoulders’ formation, a pattern often read as a shift toward a more constructive trend. Under that scenario, traders would likely refocus on the next psychological and technical barrier around $1.50.

Failure to clear the resistance, however, could keep XRP locked in a choppy range and raise the odds of a pullback toward the $1.30 support area. While several strategists note that XRP’s weekly structure still resembles a broader bearish channel, the market’s ability to repeatedly defend $1.30 has so far prevented a decisive breakdown. If that floor gives way, bearish scenarios discussed by traders include a return to the low-$1.20s.

Despite the short-term stalemate, XRP’s market footprint remains substantial. The token’s market capitalization stood near $86.18 billion, keeping it in the No. 4 position globally by crypto market value. Fully diluted valuation (FDV) was estimated at roughly $139.5 billion, reflecting the gap between current circulating supply and the maximum issuance model.

Trading activity also picked up. XRP’s 24-hour volume reached about $1.14 billion, up 5.87% from the prior day, signaling intensifying ‘two-way liquidity’ as both buyers and sellers lean into the key technical level. Centralized exchanges accounted for the vast majority of turnover, while decentralized exchange activity was comparatively small, around $450,000.

On supply metrics, circulating supply was reported at approximately 61.8 billion XRP, about 61.8% of the maximum 100 billion cap—data points closely monitored by investors assessing long-term dilution and token distribution dynamics.

Performance across time horizons remains mixed. XRP is up about 5.76% over the past 30 days, a constructive datapoint for medium-term holders, even as longer windows still reflect the market’s earlier drawdown: roughly -4.09% over 60 days and -15.09% over 90 days. Analysts largely attribute the uneven profile to the broader crypto market’s cooling from earlier-year highs and to XRP’s sensitivity to macro conditions, including U.S. interest-rate expectations and shifts in ‘institutional demand’.

Beyond pure price action, supporters point to XRP’s positioning in financial infrastructure narratives. XRP is frequently categorized as compatible with ISO 20022, a global standard for financial messaging, and has also been tagged in some market datasets as related to a “U.S. strategic crypto reserve” theme—labels that traders say can influence capital rotation during narrative-driven periods. Ripple, for its part, has continued to promote XRP-linked solutions for cross-border payments and liquidity management in partnerships with financial institutions.

Market participants will likely keep the spotlight on whether XRP can convert the $1.39–$1.40 region from resistance into support. A decisive break could reprice short-term risk appetite toward higher targets, while another rejection would reinforce the importance of defending $1.30 amid continued macro uncertainty and ongoing attention to the regulatory environment surrounding Ripple.