Coinbase Stock Slides Amid Crypto Market Slump as Analysts Cut Price Targets Ahead of Earnings

The ongoing crypto market downturn has taken a heavy toll on Coinbase (COIN), one of the leading U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchanges, with its stock falling more than 50% since bitcoin hit a record high above $126,000 in early October. In 2026 alone, Coinbase shares are already down roughly 27%, reflecting weaker investor sentiment tied to declining crypto prices, reduced trading volumes, and slowing stablecoin growth.

Ahead of Coinbase’s fourth-quarter earnings report, JPMorgan analyst Ken Worthington sharply reduced his price target on the stock to $290 from $399. Despite the cut, Worthington remains bullish on Coinbase, noting that the revised target still implies around 75% upside from the current share price of about $165. He projects adjusted EBITDA of $734 million for the quarter, down from $801 million in the previous quarter, primarily due to softer trading activity, lower crypto prices, and slower growth in USDC stablecoin balances.

Worthington estimates spot crypto trading volume of approximately $263 billion for the quarter and models stablecoin-related revenue of $312 million, citing lower USDC circulation as a key headwind. These pressures were partially offset by a full quarter of contributions from Deribit, the crypto derivatives exchange acquired by Coinbase in August. Including Deribit, JPMorgan forecasts total transaction revenue of $1.06 billion, with Deribit contributing roughly $117 million on an estimated $586 billion in trading volume.

Other analysts have echoed cautious tones. Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish said his adjusted EBITDA estimates are about 10% below consensus, driven by weaker retail trading and blockchain rewards revenue, with Robinhood’s crypto volumes serving as a negative read-through. Compass Point analyst Ed Engel struck a more bearish stance, warning that Coinbase’s subscription and services revenue remains closely tied to overall crypto prices and may disappoint.

Looking ahead, investors are expected to closely monitor early 2026 trading activity, the durability of USDC-related income, and whether newer initiatives like Deribit and Coinbase’s futures business can help stabilize revenues during periods of crypto market volatility.