Jurien Timmer Turns Cautious on Bitcoin as Four-Year Cycle Signals Possible Downturn

Jurien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments and a long-time bitcoin bull, has become one of the latest high-profile financial strategists to adopt a more cautious stance on bitcoin, citing the asset’s historically consistent four-year market cycle. While Timmer maintains a positive long-term outlook on bitcoin, he believes the current cycle may have peaked, raising the risk of a prolonged cooling period ahead.

According to Timmer, bitcoin has repeatedly followed a recognizable pattern tied to its halving-driven cycles, alternating between strong bull markets and extended bear phases often referred to as “bitcoin winters.” From both a time-based and analog perspective, he argues that the current market closely resembles prior cycles. The recent all-time high near $125,000, reached after roughly 145 months of cumulative rallying, aligns well with historical expectations based on previous cycle peaks.

Timmer notes that bitcoin bear markets have typically lasted around one year, suggesting that the next phase could involve consolidation or downside pressure rather than immediate upside. As a result, he sees 2026 as a potential “year off” for bitcoin following the apparent conclusion of the latest halving-driven rally. While he remains a secular bull on bitcoin as a long-term asset, Timmer expressed concern that the four-year cycle may have ended both in terms of price and duration.

In his analysis shared on social media, Timmer highlighted key technical levels, pointing to support in the $65,000 to $75,000 range. A move toward those levels, in his view, would be consistent with prior post-peak corrections and would not necessarily invalidate bitcoin’s long-term investment case.

Timmer also compared bitcoin’s recent performance with gold, which has shown significant strength in 2025. Gold is up roughly 65% year to date, outperforming global money supply growth and retaining most of its gains during recent market corrections. Timmer sees this resilience as typical bull market behavior and does not expect a near-term mean reversion between gold and bitcoin.

Overall, Timmer’s outlook underscores growing caution among macro strategists as bitcoin navigates the later stages of its historical cycle, even as long-term bullish sentiment remains intact.