Bitcoin Holds Near $87,000 as Options Data Signals Rising Downside Risks Into 2026

Crypto markets remain under strain as bitcoin struggles to regain momentum, hovering near the $87,000 level amid growing concerns of a deeper downturn extending into early 2026. The latest price action suggests that the recent rebound is losing strength, with brief rallies quickly followed by renewed selling pressure, reinforcing a cautious outlook across digital asset markets.

Bitcoin briefly pushed toward $90,000 earlier this week but failed to hold gains, underperforming equity markets during a period of heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. According to market data and analyst commentary, traders are increasingly positioning for downside risk, particularly around the Dec. 26 options expiry. Derivatives data highlights a significant concentration of put options at the $85,000 strike, signaling expectations that bitcoin prices could fall below this key level in the near term.

Implied volatility over the past 30 days has climbed toward 45%, while options skew remains firmly negative, reflecting strong demand for downside protection. Longer-dated skew is also negative, indicating bearish sentiment that stretches well into the first half of 2026. Analysts note that defensive positioning has intensified as the year draws to a close, with bitcoin’s late-November uptrend now broken and price behavior resembling prior sell-off phases marked by sharp but unsustainable rebounds.

Ether has shown relatively more balance, with longer-dated options skew closer to neutral. However, traders have still accumulated a notable volume of puts around the $2,500 level for late December, underscoring lingering downside concerns in the broader crypto market.

Beyond short-term trading dynamics, some analysts are warning of a potential long-term cycle shift. Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone cautioned that bitcoin’s rally above $100,000 earlier this year may have set the stage for a much deeper retracement, possibly toward $10,000 by 2026, as periods of extreme gains often precede sharp corrections.

On-chain data adds to the cautious tone, showing short-term holders remaining underwater and long-term holders reducing exposure since mid-year. With leverage still elevated and geopolitical and macro risks looming, market participants appear braced for continued volatility, keeping downside risks firmly in focus as bitcoin heads into 2026.