Crypto Market Faces Over $4B Options Expiry as Volatility Looms

Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana traders are bracing for heightened volatility as more than $4 billion in crypto options expire today. With the broader market already showing signs of weakness, investors fear the total crypto market cap could once again fall below the $3 trillion mark ahead of next week’s crucial FOMC rate decision. Rising 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, Japan’s government bond yields, and gold prices are adding further pressure, contributing to over $270 million in liquidations across major cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin is at the center of today’s expiry event, with over 36,000 BTC options—worth approximately $3.5 billion—set to expire. Deribit data shows a put-call ratio of 0.92, indicating a relatively neutral market stance, though call volume continues to outpace puts in the past 24 hours. The max pain level sits at $91,000, slightly below the current trading price, signaling a potential short-term pullback as traders reposition ahead of December’s “triple witching” expiry. Despite this, delta data suggests a strong likelihood of BTC holding above the $91,000 strike, even as implied volatility trends lower. Analysts at Glassnode warn that Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to macro shocks unless the price can reclaim key quantile levels at $95.8K and $106.2K.

Ethereum will also see a significant expiry, with more than 210,000 ETH options valued at $667 million closing today. While the overall put-call ratio is 0.78, the past 24-hour put-call ratio of 1.42 reflects short-term bearish sentiment. ETH’s max pain price stands at $3,050, just below its current level, and traders expect the cryptocurrency to remain above $3,100 post-expiry.

XRP and Solana face smaller but notable expiries. XRP’s max pain level is $2.15 as its price slips below this mark amid ongoing whale selling and Ripple-related pressures. Solana options worth $12.54 million are set to expire, with a max pain level at $132. SOL has declined nearly 4%, with traders watching for a potential move toward the max pain zone as put positioning increases.

Overall, today’s expiry event may intensify short-term price swings across major cryptocurrencies as markets remain on edge ahead of next week’s macroeconomic catalysts.