Massive Bitcoin Options Bet Signals Confidence in Year-End Rally

A major block trader placed a bold wager on Monday, signaling strong confidence in bitcoin’s year-end recovery as the cryptocurrency climbs back toward the $100,000 level. Bitcoin has bounced to roughly $88,000 after dipping near $80,000 last week, supported in part by renewed expectations of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in December. However, institutional inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs remain muted, with the 11 U.S. spot ETFs recording a combined net outflow of $151 million on Monday, according to SoSoValue.

Despite sluggish ETF activity, one trader executed a massive options position worth 20,000 BTC in notional value—approximately $1.76 billion—aimed at capturing bitcoin’s potential move beyond $100,000 by year-end. Deribit disclosed that the participant opened a long-dated call condor for December 2025, using strike prices of $100K, $106K, $112K, and $118K.

A call condor strategy involves buying calls at the lowest and highest strike prices and selling two calls at the middle strikes, all with the same expiration date. This structure allows the trader to profit if bitcoin’s price ends within a targeted range—in this case, between $106,000 and $112,000. The bullish setup reflects confidence in further gains while signaling expectations of a measured rally rather than a breakout to new all-time highs. The strategy’s capped upside at $118,000 suggests the trader does not anticipate bitcoin surging past the previous record near $126,000 this year.

Block trades of this scale, typically negotiated privately to avoid influencing market prices, highlight the growing sophistication of large investors entering the crypto options market. Instead of simply betting on direction, they are using advanced strategies to define both the expected level and the limits of bitcoin’s potential upside. This latest trade underscores rising optimism about bitcoin’s trajectory as the year progresses, even as broader institutional flows remain cautious.