Bitcoin Faces Potential Drop to $88,000 as Glassnode Warns of Weakening Momentum

Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to maintain bullish momentum throughout 2025, trading mostly between $100,000 and $120,000. Now hovering around $107,000, down 4% in the past 24 hours, analysts at Glassnode warn that a deeper correction could be looming if the cryptocurrency fails to reclaim a key technical level.

According to Glassnode’s latest report, Bitcoin’s inability to rise above the $113,000 short-term holder cost basis—the average purchase price of investors who bought BTC within the last 155 days—signals weakening market strength. This level is considered essential for sustaining a bull market, and repeated failures to break it suggest that sentiment among short-term traders is deteriorating.

If Bitcoin continues to decline, Glassnode highlights $88,000 as the next major support level, representing the realized price of active investors. This metric often indicates the lower boundary during corrective phases and nearly came into play during April’s “tariff tantrum” selloff.

Investor sentiment is beginning to show cracks. The Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH-NUPL)currently sits at –0.05, reflecting modest losses for recent buyers. Though not yet in capitulation territory, it reveals fading confidence. At the same time, long-term holders have offloaded roughly 104,000 BTC this month—the largest wave of distribution since July—further pressuring the market.

Meanwhile, derivatives activity has stabilized following October’s liquidation crisis. Realized volatility has dropped to around 43%, and the one-week options skew has returned to neutral levels, suggesting traders are less aggressively hedging against downside risk.

Glassnode concludes that Bitcoin is now in a fragile consolidation phase. While panic has subsided, sustained recovery will depend on renewed demand and long-term holder accumulation, both of which remain uncertain.