Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expiry Signals Volatility Ahead

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) traders should brace for volatility today as over $4.3 billion worth of crypto options are set to expire on Deribit. This includes $3.5 billion in Bitcoin contracts and $806.7 million in Ethereum contracts.

For Bitcoin, 30,208 contracts are expiring with a Put-to-Call ratio of 1.23, signaling bearish sentiment. The maximum pain level, where most options expire worthless, is $114,000. BTC is currently trading around $117,147 and could move closer to this level before stabilization.

Ethereum’s 177,398 contracts carry a notional value of $806.7 million, with a Put-to-Call ratio of 0.99, slightly favoring bullish sentiment. ETH trades near $4,590, with a max pain level at $4,500. A PCR below 1 indicates more calls than puts, suggesting traders are leaning bullish compared to Bitcoin.

The options market has shown caution following the Federal Reserve’s rate cut earlier this week. Analysts from Greeks.live noted a rise in implied volatility but weaker trading volumes, reflecting uncertainty. Glassnode reported that 95% of BTC supply is currently in profit, with futures markets showing signs of short squeezes.

Looking ahead, the biggest event comes next Friday, September 26, when a record $18 billion in Bitcoin options will expire. At a price of $118,000, more than $2.4 billion remains in the money, with max pain at $110,000. This could trigger sharp moves as expiry nears.

For now, traders should expect short-term turbulence as BTC gravitates toward $114,000 and ETH toward $4,500. However, markets historically stabilize after expiry as traders adapt to the new environment, setting the stage for potential weekend price shifts.