Top Polymarket Trader Bets on Fed’s 50 Basis Point Rate Cut

A leading trader on decentralized betting platform Polymarket, known as JustWakingUp, is making headlines with a bold wager that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) next week. The trader, recognized as Polymarket’s most active participant with nearly $400 million in trading volume and over $2 million in profits, has staked $15,000 on the Fed lowering rates to 3.75%. The position is already showing a 3% gain, with potential profits of around $226,000 if the larger-than-expected cut materializes.

While market consensus remains firmly behind a 25 bps cut, with the CME FedWatch Tool assigning a 91% probability, expectations for a 50 bps move have recently climbed to nearly 10%. The shift follows a weaker-than-expected August jobs report and a historic labor revision from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which revealed 911,000 fewer jobs were created in the 12 months ending March 2025 than previously estimated. This marks the sharpest annual downward revision on record, fueling speculation of more aggressive Fed action.

Adding to the debate, financial heavyweights BlackRock and Standard Chartered have publicly backed the case for a 50 bps reduction. Upcoming economic data will play a crucial role, with traders watching Wednesday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) and Thursday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports. Softer inflation readings could strengthen the argument for a larger cut, potentially boosting risk assets such as bitcoin and U.S. equities.

With monetary policy at a pivotal moment, the Fed’s decision next week could significantly impact markets worldwide. If the bold bet by Polymarket’s top trader proves correct, it would highlight growing uncertainty around the U.S. economy and reinforce the rising influence of prediction markets in gauging financial sentiment.