Bitcoin at a Pivotal Point as Key Indicator Signals Potential Trend Shift

Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, is at a crucial juncture as key metrics hint at an imminent momentum shift.

Glassnode data reveals that Bitcoin's Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR, 7D SMA) is testing the critical 1.0 breakeven level. This metric tracks whether short-term holders (STHs) are selling at a profit or loss. A sustained move above 1.0 typically signals a bullish shift, while rejection often leads to further sell pressure.

In early January, BTC briefly reclaimed 1.0 but failed to maintain the breakout. Now, Glassnode's STH-SOPR Multiple, which measures short-term profitability trends, is in the red, indicating increasing losses among STHs. This suggests a high probability of rejection at breakeven unless strong bullish momentum emerges. Conversely, a breakout above 1.0 could signal renewed strength in Bitcoin’s uptrend.

At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $95,809, down 0.15% in the past 24 hours, extending its recent pullback amid broader market profit-taking following the Bybit hack and macroeconomic uncertainties.

Investors remain cautious ahead of major U.S. economic data releases this week. The Q4 GDP growth rate, scheduled for Thursday, will provide insights into economic performance, while Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—could shape expectations for future interest rate cuts.

With markets now anticipating the Fed to hold rates steady until summer, Bitcoin’s price action remains sensitive to macroeconomic trends and on-chain profitability signals. Traders should closely monitor the STH-SOPR indicator for signs of a potential trend shift.