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Bitcoin (BTC) remains on its bullish trajectory despite recent price setbacks, with a key analytical tool offering insights into its sustained upward trend.
Philip Swift, the creator of the on-chain analytics platform LookIntoBitcoin, shared his analysis of the Realized Cap HODL Waves (RHODL) metric. While Bitcoin experienced a 10% price drop last week, the RHODL metric presents a broader perspective, showcasing the ongoing momentum of the current bull market.
For those unfamiliar, RHODL Waves provide a unique way of examining BTC movement. This metric categorizes the Bitcoin supply based on when each coin, or more specifically, each unspent transaction output, was last transferred. It assigns a value based on the price at its last activity. In essence, RHODL Waves help gauge market sentiment based on coin activity.
Swift noted an interesting trend in the analysis—the prevalence of coins that were last active three to six months ago. Historically, such activity patterns have signaled the beginning of Bitcoin's bull phases.
Regarding the recent BTC price drops, Swift offered an encouraging perspective. He viewed the temporary price decline as part of a larger bullish trend. In essence, the influx of "new money" into the market indicates the start of a fresh bull cycle.
The accuracy of RHODL as an analytical tool is reinforced by its past predictions. In December 2022, when Bitcoin hovered around a two-year low of $15,600, Swift used RHODL to identify waning "euphoria" among short-term Bitcoin investors. He accurately pinpointed the market's lowest point in its cycle, suggesting favorable risk-reward opportunities.
In January, Swift's predictions came true as Bitcoin embarked on an upward trend, gaining an impressive 70% in the first quarter. Investor dynamics have since shifted. Holders with Bitcoin for 155 days or fewer have reduced their holdings to levels not seen since the previous November. However, with the recent dip, nearly 90% of these short-term investors' holdings are currently at a notional loss.
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