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Since October last year, Bitcoin’s price rose by almost 500 percent and even posted a new all-time high above $61,000 by mid-March. However, the crypto appears to have lost momentum and BTC traded below $60,000 since its price correction.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at 58,141 based on data from Coinmarketcap. While BTC’s momentum might have faltered in March, there are those who believe that the crypto could be heading to a massive rally by April.
This optimism is based on the crypto’s historical data. Bitcoin investors and traders have noted that, based on Bitcoin’s past price trends, March losses are often followed by an April rally, a trend that could repeat itself this year, according to Forbes.
“As with any month, the potential price prospects of bitcoin can be split into a number of different thought processes,” Danny Scott, the chief executive of the Isle of Man-based bitcoin and cryptocurrency exchange CoinCorner,” told Forbes via Twitter DM. “Time of the year can be a factor and the month of April is always highlighted, as it's the end of the U.K. and U.S. tax year.”
Scott said that analysis of price data over the last ten years revealed an average gain of 51 percent for Bitcoin in April. Taking into account BTC’s current price, this could mean that the crypto’s price could go above $80,000 by the end of April 2021.
There were only two cases during the ten-year period where BTC registered losses in April. “There have only been two negative Aprils since bitcoin began—in 2014 (-6%) and 2015 (-4%)—which is tied coincidentally with the following month of May with only two negative months—2015 (-1%) and 2018 (-18%)—so maybe there is some momentum and truth from this,” Scott noted.
However, Scott pointed out that these two negative Aprils happened during Bitcoin bear markets. He suggested that the current industry sentiment should be taken into consideration as well.
“At the moment we’re very much in a bull period with consistent momentum building each week,” the CoinCorner CEO said. He also pointed out that Bitcoin currently has the backing of high-profile billionaires such as Elon Musk and Jack Dorsey as well as Wall Street banks that already begun offering Bitcoin services to their clients.
Of course, there are those who believe that Bitcoin’s past price hikes in April as mere coincidence. “I don't really have a good reason [for why bitcoin historically climbs in April],” CoinGecko chief operating officer Bobby Ong said. “Perhaps the only thing I can think of is that historically bitcoin tends to underperform in March, so April sees a rebound in price.”
Ong suggested that Bitcoin traders and investors should not rely on “historical coincidence” and past trends when making price predictions. “If enough people think that March will underperform and take appropriate steps, then actual performance will underperform too,” he warned.
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