SpaceX IPO Expectations Rebound as Hyperliquid’s SPCX Contract Surges Ahead of Market Debut

SpaceX-linked perpetual futures contract SPCX on Hyperliquid rallied sharply on Friday, signaling renewed optimism among traders ahead of the aerospace company’s highly anticipated stock market debut. The contract traded between $176 and $183 during the morning session, recovering from a weekly low near $153 and climbing above the approximately $157 level recorded earlier this week.

SPCX is a cash-settled derivative that tracks market expectations for SpaceX’s stock performance. While the contract does not grant ownership of SpaceX shares, IPO allocations, or any direct claim on the company, it has emerged as a key indicator of investor sentiment because SpaceX set its IPO price at $135 per share.

Trading activity remained strong on Hyperliquid, with open interest reaching roughly $216 million and 24-hour trading volume surpassing $150 million. The increase in activity reflects growing interest from investors seeking exposure to SpaceX-related price movements through crypto-based markets.

Blockchain-powered prediction and derivatives markets have become increasingly popular for pre-IPO speculation. Unlike traditional private equity investments that often require accredited investor status and significant capital commitments, decentralized platforms offer retail investors a more accessible way to participate in price discovery around major public listings.

Earlier this week, SPCX implied only a 16% premium above the IPO price when it traded near $157. That marked a significant decline from May, when the contract briefly surged to around $216 and suggested a premium of nearly 60%. Friday’s rebound to approximately $183 pushed the implied first-day premium back to about 36%, indicating that bullish sentiment is returning.

Other alternative markets are also signaling stronger expectations for SpaceX. Bloomberg reported that IG International derivatives point to a SpaceX valuation of roughly $2.4 trillion, more than 35% above the company’s IPO valuation of $1.77 trillion. Meanwhile, traders on Polymarket currently assign a 70% probability that SpaceX will close its first trading day with a market capitalization exceeding $2 trillion.

The recent recovery follows several weeks of declining prices in SPCX, during which traders appeared cautious about the scale of any post-IPO rally. The latest rebound suggests that investors are once again expecting SpaceX shares to outperform their offering price, narrowing the gap between earlier conservative forecasts and renewed market enthusiasm.