Coinbase Launches U.S. Prediction Markets With Kalshi Partnership

Coinbase (COIN) has officially launched its new prediction market platform for U.S. users, marking a major expansion of its product offerings and reinforcing its vision of becoming an “everything exchange.” The platform, developed in partnership with Kalshi, allows users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events such as elections, major sports competitions, economic indicators, and even collectibles.

Announced in December and rolled out this week, the Coinbase prediction market integrates Kalshi’s event-based contracts into the crypto exchange’s ecosystem. Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market operator that was recently valued at approximately $11 billion, underscoring growing institutional and investor confidence in the sector. Through this collaboration, Coinbase users can access a regulated marketplace where they buy or sell simple “yes” or “no” contracts tied to specific outcomes.

These contracts function similarly to simplified derivatives. Prices fluctuate based on supply and demand, effectively representing the market’s collective probability of an event occurring. For example, a contract priced at $0.65 implies a 65% perceived chance of a particular outcome. This structure makes prediction markets appealing not only to traders but also to analysts who view them as alternative data sources for real-time sentiment.

The timing of the launch is strategic, as it coincides with one of the largest sports betting moments of the year, the Super Bowl. Coinbase confirmed the U.S. rollout in a post on X, highlighting that this is the first time prediction markets have been made available to its American user base. The move positions Coinbase to compete more directly with established and emerging platforms in the rapidly growing prediction market space.

Prediction markets have seen renewed momentum over the past year, driven by rising interest in on-chain financial products and platforms like Polymarket, where trading volumes have surged. Many participants use these markets to express views on political, economic, and cultural events, while others see them as tools for hedging or speculation.

By leveraging its large, regulated U.S. user base, Coinbase’s entry into prediction markets could significantly boost liquidity, mainstream adoption, and visibility for the sector. The launch represents another step in Coinbase’s broader strategy to diversify beyond traditional crypto trading and offer innovative financial products within a compliant framework.