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While the ETF licensing procedure could take until 2025, it could be Ether's most important price catalyst.
Spot Ether ETFs Could Drive ETH Price to $10,000 by End of 2024, Says Nexo's Stoychev
Legalizing spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States may propel Ether's price to $10,000.
While the US Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) ETF certification procedure could take months, Andrey Stoychev, Nexo's head of prime brokerage, believes that the ETF's introduction could be a big driver for the price of Ether (ETH).
“ETH ETFs in the USA and similar products in Asia could be the driver that helps the asset reach $10,000 by end-2024, catching up with Bitcoin’s performance post-ETF,” Stoychev told Cointelegraph.
The prediction follows a strong price spike for Ether, which has risen more than 21% in the last 24 hours to a two-month high of $3,771 as of 12:08 pm UTC, according to CoinMarketCap.
The Ether rally comes after news that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has reversed its decision on spot Ether ETFs, potentially owing to political pressure, and has requested ETF exchanges to revise their 19b-4 filings.
While the timing of a prospective spot Ether ETF remains uncertain, Nexo's Stoychev sees the SEC's latest move as a favorable indication.
“This seeming change in perception towards Ether ETFs may come to signal a switch in stance from the SEC. A speculative reason for that could be the upcoming US presidential election which has come to highlight that crypto users may play a defining role, especially in swing states.”
SEC Likely to Approve VanEck's Ether ETF by May 23, but S-1 Filings Could Delay Live Trading Until 2025, Analysts Say
The next SEC deadline for VanEck's Ether ETF proposal is May 23. A senior Bloomberg ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, has upped the proposal's approval probability to 75% from 25%. However, this higher likelihood applies solely to the 19b-4 type.
However, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart, who wrote in a May 20 X post, Ether ETF issuers must also have their S-1 filings authorized.
“We also need S-1 approvals. It could be weeks to months before we see S-1 approvals and thus a live EtH ETF… That said, if we’re correct and we see these theoretical approvals later this week. It *should* mean that S-1 approvals are a matter of ‘When’ not ‘If’...”
While the SEC is likely to accept VanEck's application, the approval of the S-1 files may be postponed until 2025, according to Yunus Ozkaya, CEO and founder of the FreeBnk app, who told Cointelegraph:
“I am not expecting anything earlier than 2025 to be tradeable, including S-1 approval. However, when it does, it will have a really big positive effect on the market, even if S-1 approval takes more time. I am expecting they will approve it by May 23rd for Vaneck’s 19b-4 deadline.”
Photo: Microsoft Bing
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