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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has requested spot Ethereum ETF applicants to update their 19b-4 filings, sparking increased optimism about potential approvals, according to industry sources.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas indicated on May 20 that the SEC might reverse its expected stance and choose not to deny the pending applications. Balchunas referenced ETF Store President Nate Geraci, who suggested that the SEC could approve 19b-4 exchange listing rules while postponing decisions on S-1 registration statements.
James Seyffart added that multiple sources had indicated new filings would emerge in the coming days. Eleanor Terret, a FOX Business reporter, confirmed her sources also verified the SEC's request for updated 19b-4 filings, noting the situation is "evolving in real-time."
Increased Odds of Approval
Balchunas and Seyffart have increased their predicted odds of a spot Ethereum ETF approval to 75%, up from earlier estimates of 25% to 30%. Balchunas highlighted that the issue has become "increasingly political," a topic heavily discussed over the past week.
On May 15, Coinbase Research Analyst David Han suggested the upcoming U.S. election could influence the SEC’s decision. Balchunas, however, called Han’s statements a "risk-free PR move" compared to his own riskier predictions. Ryan Sean Adams, founder of Bankless, supported the view that political pressure during election years could affect SEC approvals.
Despite the optimism, some remain skeptical. Ron Hammond, Director of Government Relations at the Blockchain Association, noted that many believe the SEC will deny applications based on political indicators and comments from issuers.
Imminent Deadlines
The SEC faces imminent deadlines, with a decision on VanEck’s proposal for a spot ETH ETF required by May 23. The SEC might decide on multiple applications simultaneously.
The prediction market Polymarket suggests a 10% chance that a spot Ethereum ETF could be approved by the end of May, based on crypto-backed bets.
Market Reaction
These developments coincided with a sharp increase in Ethereum’s price, which rose 20% over 24 hours, with most gains occurring within two hours of Balchunas’ announcement. The broader crypto market also saw a rise of 6.7%, while Bitcoin increased by 5.2%.
The SEC's request for updated filings has fueled speculation and optimism in the crypto market, as stakeholders await the regulatory body's final decision on the spot Ethereum ETF applications.
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