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Traders argue that monitoring Bitcoin whale activities is useless for gaining valuable market insights, stating that it serves social media more than serious analysis. On-chain analyst James Check and others warn against relying on whale metrics for market predictions.
Traders Dismiss Bitcoin Whale Watching as 'Useless,' Arguing It Offers No Valuable Market Insights
According to traders (via Cointelegraph), Bitcoin whale monitoring is beneficial for social media rather than for valuable analysis.
According to traders, the metric employed as a popular method of speculating on market sentiment for some time, tracking the wallet movements of Bitcoin whales—Bitcoin holders with a substantial quantity of BTC—will not result in "true alpha."
“Don’t whale watch kids, it’s not useful information,” on-chain analysis firm Glassnode lead analyst James Check, known as Checkmate, wrote in a June 15 X post.
“Not once have I seen true alpha extracted from whale watching. It’s good for social media, but is almost never serious nor valuable analysis,” he added.
It is a widely held belief among crypto traders that Bitcoin whales, who possess considerable Bitcoin holdings, can influence the market through their tactical trading strategies.
The data needs to provide a definitive indication, as whales' movements can be interpreted in various ways even though they can have an influence.
For example, the abrupt activation of dormant addresses with substantial holdings may indicate the possibility of selling, particularly if transferred to an exchange deposit address.
Alpha Beta Soup, a YouTube channel hosted by pseudonymous crypto analyst TXMC, issued a warning “against using ‘whale’ metrics and making declarations about them” in a June 15 X post.
They clarified that a sell-off is only sometimes indicated when whales sell substantial quantities of Bitcoin in a brief period.
“The mechanical stepwise drawdown here speaks to wallet mgmt and you are only seeing part of a larger pie. These are sometimes firms & institutions with multiple wallets and hundreds/ thousands of clients,” they claimed.
“Data around these entities is notoriously noisy, and I can almost guarantee that the big ‘whale’ wallets you’re watching are ETFs, and exchanges,” Check explained in a May 7 post.
“Cheap engagement bait in my honest opinion,” he added.
Whale movements are frequently the subject of social media postings that elicit substantial interest.
Pseudonymous crypto trader Marty Party's most recent post, which addressed Bitcoin whale activity, received more than 205,000 views.
“Bitcoin OG whales have sold over 50,000 BTC in the past 10 days, totaling approximately $3.30 billion,”Marty Party wrote on June 14.
Analysts Use Graphics to Highlight Bitcoin Whale Movements, Sparking Debate on Market Impact
Graphics are frequently included by analysts who reference Bitcoin whale movements to illustrate the activity over time.
“While you are scared, whales just bought $1.3 billion worth of Bitcoin,” Bitgrow Lab founder Vivek Sen wrote on June 14, along with a graphic extracted from crypto analysis firm CryptoQuant.
Nevertheless, other analysts continue to utilize whale movements as a metric for determining the market's trajectory.
CryptoQuant reported on May 15 that Bitcoin whale demand is again in "acceleration mode" after a two-month decline.
“Bitcoin demand growth seems to be stabilizing after being in a decelerating trend since March,” it said.
CryptoQuant cited the data to assert that the price rally would require further acceleration in demand.
Photo: Microsoft Bing
