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Analyst Predicts Solana ETF Decision by Mid-March, Tied to U.S. Presidential Election

Analysts predict Solana ETF decision by mid-March, influenced by upcoming presidential election.

Tue, 09 Jul 2024, 09:50 am UTC

Following new filings by VanEck and 21Shares, the final decision on Spot Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is anticipated by mid-March 2025. Analyst Eric Balchunas suggests the outcome may depend on the November presidential election results.

Solana ETF Decision Expected by Mid-March, Analyst Ties Outcome to November Presidential Election

Eric Balchunas, an analyst at Bloomberg ETF, believes that the outcome will be determined by Trump's election as President in November.

The final decision deadline for Spot Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is expected to be in mid-March of the following year, following the filing of applications by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) on July 8 to list the proposed ETFs of VanEck and 21Shares.

On July 8, CBOE submitted two Form 19b-4 applications: one for the VanEck Solana Trust and another for the 21Shares Core Solana ETF.

The CBOE compared the potential Solana funds to spot Bitcoin and spot Ether ETFs, which were approved by the SEC in January and May, respectively. According to Cointelegraph, Solana's decentralization, throughput, and speed rendered it impervious to manipulation that could potentially harm investors.

“Much like Bitcoin and ETH, the Exchange believes that SOL is resistant to price manipulation and that ‘other means to prevent fraudulent and manipulative acts and practices’ exist to justify dispensing with the requisite surveillance sharing agreement,” read both filings.

According to ETF analyst Nate Geraci, the "decision clock will start ticking" once the SEC acknowledges the filings.

The SEC will have 240 days to determine whether or not to authorize the rule change required for CBOE to list the products from VanEck and 21Shares, per the agency's regulations.

Solana ETF Approval Hinges on U.S. Presidential Election Outcome, Says Bloomberg Analyst

Eric Balchunas, a senior Bloomberg ETF analyst, cautions that the probability of the SEC approving the Solana ETF is contingent upon Donald Trump's election as President of the United States in November.

“Looks like Solana ETFs are going to have a final deadline of mid-March 2025. But between now and then the most [important] date is in November,” Balchunas wrote in a July 9 post to X.

According to Balchunas, the Solana ETFs are expected to be "dead on arrival" if Biden wins the election. However, if Trump wins, anything is conceivable.

GSR Markets, a crypto market maker, predicted in a June 27 research report that the approval and subsequent launch of Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States could increase the price of SOL by a factor of nine.

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