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2024 Predicted to Usher in Major Bitcoin Surge Amid Halving, Election Year

The anticipation of a Bitcoin bull run in 2024 remains a significant factor influencing investment choices throughout the market.

Wed, 07 Feb 2024, 09:52 am UTC

The anticipation of a significant Bitcoin bull run in 2024 remains a driving force behind investment decisions in the crypto space.

This sentiment stems from various factors, including the anticipated approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs for trading and the upcoming BTC halving event. Analysts have highlighted the latter, emphasizing its potential to trigger a bullish market trend.

Analyzing the Halving Event

Crypto analyst James van Straten recently shared insights on X (formerly Twitter), outlining why the Bitcoin halving event is expected to fuel a bullish price trajectory. The halving, a programmed event occurring approximately every four years, entails halving block rewards, reducing them by 50% with each occurrence.

Impact on Supply and Demand Dynamics

This reduction in block rewards directly impacts the number of newly minted BTC entering circulation. The current block reward of 6.25 BTC will be halved to 3.125 in the upcoming event.

Straten underscores the significance of this reduction, particularly in terms of monthly issuance. He notes that while miners and exchanges accumulated approximately 61,000 BTC over the past month, the halving is expected to decrease monthly issuance to 13,500 BTC. When juxtaposed with sustained demand levels, this substantial drop in supply is projected to create a significant supply-demand imbalance, potentially driving prices higher as the market seeks equilibrium.

Additional Bullish Factors

In addition to the supply dynamics influenced by the halving event, the convergence of the halving year with the United States presidential elections presents another bullish factor for Bitcoin prices.

According to News BTC, Markus Thielen, Head of Research at Matrixport, highlights historical data indicating a positive correlation between Bitcoin price performance and election years. Past halving and election years have consistently seen significant price rallies, with BTC registering increases of 152% in 2012, 121% in 2016, and 302% in 2020.

Anticipated Price Projection

Looking ahead to 2024, Thielen expects Bitcoin to reach a price of $70,000 by the year's end, representing a 65% increase from current levels.

According to Fortune, this projection is supported by macroeconomic trends, monetary policies, the US election cycle, and growing demand from TradeFi investors allocating to Bitcoin ETFs. If historical trends persist, the year 2024 could mark the onset of another bullish market cycle.

In summary, the convergence of favorable market dynamics and external factors sets the stage for a potentially significant Bitcoin bull run in 2024, shaping investment strategies and market sentiment across the crypto landscape.

Photo: Amijth/Unsplash

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