XRP Near $1.10 as On-Chain Activity Hits Yearly Lows, Demand Concerns Rise

Ripple’s XRP is hovering around the $1.10 level as fresh on-chain indicators suggest the network is seeing its weakest user activity of the year—an imbalance that is amplifying concerns about whether the token’s recent slide is being matched by real demand. Adding to the cautious tone, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has revisited the firm’s past standoff with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), describing how close the company came to shutting down during the lawsuit.

According to CoinMarketCap data cited Tuesday UTC, XRP was trading at $1.0987, down 0.84% over the previous 24 hours. The token has fallen 3.16% over the past week and 3.19% over the last 30 days, while its 60-day performance shows a sharper drawdown of 23.48%, underscoring persistent mid-term selling pressure.

Trading activity remains heavily concentrated on centralized venues. XRP’s 24-hour volume was about $805 million, with roughly $804.8 million coming from centralized exchanges (CEXs). By contrast, decentralized exchange (DEX) volume was just around $0.4 million, highlighting how little spot demand is being expressed on-chain. XRP’s market capitalization stood near $68.6 billion, representing approximately 3.12% of the broader crypto market.

From a technical perspective, short-term signals continue to lean bearish. On the four-hour chart, XRP has remained in a clear downtrend, with the 50-period moving average sloping lower—typically interpreted as weakening momentum and a market structure that favors sellers. Binance Research has pointed to a potential weekly upside of roughly 5%, flagging $1.11 as a possible target in a rebound scenario, but that view is largely framed as a technical bounce rather than a shift in fundamentals. Several data-focused outlets have also described 2026 as a year characterized by a harsh, market-wide correction, suggesting that a sustained bullish reversal would likely require improving macro conditions and renewed risk appetite across crypto.

The more striking development is on-chain. Daily active addresses on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) reportedly fell to about 25,350, marking the second-lowest reading of 2026. New wallet creation also dropped to its weakest level since November 2024. In market terms, declining active addresses and slowing wallet growth are often read as signs of fading organic usage—an erosion of the user base that can make price rebounds harder to sustain without external catalysts.

Commentary from 24/7 Wall Street linked the on-chain slowdown to XRP’s short-term price weakness, arguing that reduced investor participation is weighing on the ecosystem’s growth narrative. At the same time, there have been no widely confirmed announcements of major protocol upgrades or headline partnership expansions on XRPL that might otherwise counterbalance the contraction in network activity.

Regulatory memory also resurfaced this week after Garlinghouse described the severity of the SEC dispute in a recent interview. He said Ripple seriously considered closing the company when the SEC filed suit and alleged XRP was a security—calling it an ‘existential crisis’ for the business. Garlinghouse added that Ripple spent roughly $150 million to continue the legal fight and keep operations and employment intact. While the remarks do not point to a new legal escalation, they have refocused attention on how sharply regulatory risk can affect XRP’s valuation and the pace of ‘institutional adoption’.

Looking ahead, some AI-driven forecasting models have floated bullish projections that place XRP above $2.50 in 2026. Market participants, however, continue to treat such outcomes as speculative—particularly given that they are not tied to an official Ripple roadmap or confirmed protocol-level changes. Separately, occasional claims about potential links between the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the XRP Ledger have circulated in parts of the market, but no reliable direct evidence has been publicly substantiated.

Supply metrics illustrate the valuation sensitivity to sentiment shifts. XRP’s circulating supply was reported at about 62.47 billion tokens out of a maximum supply of 100 billion, implying a fully diluted market capitalization near $109.8 billion at current prices. For now, analysts say a more durable recovery narrative would likely require a visible rebound in on-chain engagement alongside clearer macro tailwinds—conditions that have yet to materialize.