Crypto Trading Slowdown Forces Analysts to Cut 2026 Earnings Forecasts

Crypto trading activity has fallen sharply in early 2026, prompting Wall Street analysts to revise their earnings forecasts downward ahead of first-quarter reports. Research from Barclays and Oppenheimer signals a broad reset across the sector as trading volumes weaken and earlier projections prove overly optimistic.

Barclays moved most aggressively, downgrading Coinbase (COIN) and warning that global crypto trading has dropped to levels not seen since late 2023. The bank estimates that Coinbase's first-quarter volumes declined approximately 30% from the previous quarter, with March marking the weakest trading month since September 2024 and April showing no signs of recovery. Barclays now projects Coinbase's adjusted EBITDA roughly 24% below consensus, citing weaker spot trading and declining retail participation.

The logic is simple: crypto exchanges earn fees on every transaction, so when trading volumes fall, revenue follows. Retail traders who were active during market rallies tend to step back when prices stagnate or drop, and that collective pullback hits exchange revenue fast. Bitcoin lost over 22% of its value in the first quarter, while Ethereum fell nearly 29%, further dampening investor sentiment.

Oppenheimer shared a cautious outlook but maintained a more constructive view on Coinbase. The firm reduced its volume estimate to $211 billion for the quarter and now projects total revenue of $1.48 billion, below prior consensus. Broader economic uncertainty was cited as a contributing factor.

The slowdown extends beyond Coinbase. Rosenblatt downgraded Bullish (BLSH) and Compass Point cut Circle (CRCL) to a sell rating, reflecting sector-wide pressure. While stablecoin growth and prediction markets offer some diversification potential, analysts remain skeptical these can offset core trading revenue losses in the near term.

With Coinbase reporting earnings on May 7 and Bullish on April 23, analysts are lowering expectations now to avoid being caught off guard by disappointing results.