Markets Cut Back Rate-Cut Bets as Data Delays Inject Fresh Uncertainty

Market expectations for another Federal Reserve rate cut this year have shifted sharply after the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced it will not release October jobs data and will delay November’s report until after the Fed’s December policy meeting. With one of the central bank’s most influential data points now unavailable, traders are scaling back their forecasts. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the probability of a December rate cut has fallen to just 33%, down from 50% a day earlier and near 100% less than a month ago.

Sentiment began turning after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled in late October that the central bank was not yet ready to guarantee further easing. Subsequent comments and interviews from Fed officials have highlighted deep divisions inside the institution about whether additional rate cuts are warranted. Minutes from the October meeting released this afternoon further underscored that split, reinforcing uncertainty in financial markets.

Crypto markets have been among the hardest hit. Bitcoin, which traded near $110,000 before Powell’s remarks, has slid to around $89,000. Crypto-related equities have also suffered steep declines. Stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) dropped 10% on Wednesday and nearly 50% over the past month, while Bitcoin-focused treasury firm Strategy is down 10% today and nearly 40% in the same period.

With no fresh labor data ahead of the December meeting, policymakers will have to rely on older figures that may not reflect current economic conditions. The only remaining national employment report before the meeting is Thursday’s release of September data, which analysts say is unlikely to sway either hawks or doves given its age.

Adding to the political noise, President Donald Trump said this week that he would have already dismissed Powell if not for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who urged allowing the Fed chair to finish his term through 2026. Trump criticized the Fed for keeping rates “too high,” warning Bessent to resolve the issue quickly.

The combination of data uncertainty, policy divisions, and political pressure is amplifying volatility, leaving markets to navigate the final weeks of 2025 without their usual economic signals.