Bitcoin Eyes $100K Ahead of $14B Options Expiry on Deribit — But Sentiment May Be Misleading

A record $14 billion in Bitcoin options contracts are set to expire on Deribit this Friday, with over 141,000 BTC in open interest. While a rising put-call ratio of 0.72 traditionally signals bearish sentiment, analysts say this may not reflect true market expectations.

“Much of the recent increase in puts stems from cash-secured put strategies, where traders collect premiums while positioning to accumulate BTC,” said Lin Chen, head of Asia BD at Deribit.

Of the contracts expiring, 81,994 are calls and many are “in-the-money,” suggesting bullish investors have profited in this cycle — a trend supported by continued ETF inflows.

With the max pain point at $102,000, volatility is expected to spike as call holders may take profits or roll positions. Market makers like Wintermute report neutral to slightly bullish flows, with traders selling straddles and writing calls at $105K while shorting puts at $100K, signaling expectations of tight price action between $100K–$105K into expiry.

While a large number of call options are poised to expire worthless, selective buying at higher strikes (108K–112K for Jul/Sep) hints at cautious optimism beyond this week.