Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Forecast to Fall 7.85% at Friday Reset

Bitcoin (BTC) mining difficulty is projected to decline 7.85% at the next adjustment, expected around 6:52 p.m. ET Friday, Nov. 13 (23:52 UTC). At 12:36 p.m. ET Thursday, Nov. 12 (17:36 UTC), difficulty stood at 148.36 trillion, with 168 blocks left before the retarget at block 975,744.

If confirmed, the decrease would be Bitcoin’s largest difficulty cut since June 14, when the measure fell 10.09%, from 138.96 trillion to 124.93 trillion. The forecast decline would be smaller than the 11.16% drop on Feb. 7.

Difficulty increased 5.92% on Oct. 16 and then climbed 5.54% at the Oct. 29 adjustment, bringing it to 148.36 trillion. The projected decline would reverse part of those gains.

Bitcoin resets mining difficulty after each 2,016-block interval, aiming to keep average block production near one block every 10 minutes. Blocks in the current cycle have averaged 651.1 seconds, or about 10 minutes and 51 seconds. Because blocks have been arriving more slowly than the target, the next adjustment is projected to lower difficulty.

A lower difficulty means less computing work is needed to find a block. With computing power unchanged, miners would have a better chance of earning block rewards, all else equal. The adjustment alone does not establish whether mining is profitable.