Bitcoin Treasury Companies Surge as mNAV Metrics Spark Investor Debate

A wave of new bitcoin treasury firms—companies primarily focused on accumulating Bitcoin (BTC)—is rapidly emerging, following the playbook of industry giant MicroStrategy (MSTR). With Bitcoin trading near $110,000, these firms are drawing investor interest, but also raising questions about how best to value them.

The most discussed metric is mNAV, or modified net asset value, which compares a company’s market valuation to the value of its bitcoin holdings. An mNAV above 1.0 indicates investors are paying a premium, while one below 1.0 suggests shares are undervalued relative to bitcoin assets. However, Greg Cipolaro, head of research at NYDIG, warns mNAV alone is “woefully deficient” for evaluating these firms.

In his June 6 report, Cipolaro emphasizes the importance of also considering a company's cash, enterprise value (excluding bitcoin), and liabilities like debt and preferred shares. These factors provide a clearer picture of the “equity premium to NAV,” a metric showing how much more (or less) investors are willing to pay for a company compared to its net asset value.

The analysis revealed that while both Semler Scientific (SMLR) and Trump Media (DJT) have mNAVs above 1.1, their equity premiums are negative, at -10% and -16%, respectively. This suggests market skepticism despite their sizable bitcoin holdings.

Meanwhile, MicroStrategy shares rose nearly 5% as Bitcoin gained from $105,000 to $108,500. Yet other BTC treasury stocks remained flat, highlighting the complexity of investor sentiment in this niche market.

With the rise of Bitcoin-focused public companies, investors and analysts are reevaluating traditional valuation models to better assess these unique, crypto-heavy balance sheets.