Slower Global Rate Hikes May Ease a Headwind for Bitcoin

Eight of 10 central banks raised interest rates in the six months through Tuesday, Nov. 10. Sweden announced an increase Nov. 4. The pace of tightening has begun to ease since its July peak.

Bitcoin reached a low in Nov. 2022, and its six-month return turned positive in Feb. 2023 before any central bank in the tracked group began cutting rates. In March 2024, the six-month return exceeded 160%, its strongest reading of that cycle, while monetary tightening measures remained in effect.

“In each case, BTC moved with the direction of global policy, not its level,” Binance Research said. Whether the slowdown continues into early 2027 will be a factor in judging whether the macroeconomic backdrop is becoming less hostile to crypto.

The global trend has a counterpoint in the United States. Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller said Tuesday, Nov. 10, that he was leaning toward a quarter-point rate increase in December. He said he would consider a half-point move if core inflation remained elevated.

Market-implied odds of a quarter-point December increase rose from 76.3% to 96.3% Tuesday. The U.S. rate outlook adds a counterpoint to the global slowdown.