Hyperliquid Model Puts HYPE at $128 on 3% Noncrypto Market Share

A valuation model puts Hyperliquid (HYPE) at $128 per token in 2029 under a base case that assumes a 3% share of the noncrypto market and $4.91 billion in revenue.

The model uses $934 trillion as the estimated size of the combined global futures and stock markets in 2029. It assumes crypto trading volume triples, blended fees average 0.006%, the USDC yield falls to 3.6% and HIP-4 contributes $100 million in revenue. Under those inputs, projected revenue rises from $944 million to $4.91 billion.

A 40-times valuation multiple produces the $128 base case. A 30-times multiple gives a $98 valuation, while the optimistic case reaches $165.

Noncrypto trades went from no share of Hyperliquid’s volume in September 2025 to a 51% peak in July 2026, then accounted for about 30% in October 2026. On Oct. 27, they made up 40% of $7.2 billion in daily volume, with single stocks the largest category.

The result is sensitive to noncrypto fees. Using CME’s 0.0004% rate lowers the model’s base-case valuation to $66. Binance has launched 229 TradFi perpetual contracts this year and averages $13.4 billion in daily volume, compared with $2.3 billion for Hyperliquid.