[Satoshi Index] 24-Hour Top Crypto Traders' Short Notional Falls From $3.0B to $1.9B Since Yesterday Evening; Bitcoin Split 105 Long to 104 Short While the 30-Day Group Stays 91% Short

‘Satoshi Index’ is a daily series in which Satoshi Note™, a crypto portfolio tracker, analyzes the current positions of top traders using on-chain data. Data refreshes hourly; figures reflect the aggregation time stated in the article. [Editor's note]

As of 7:10 a.m. KST on Oct. 24 (22:10 UTC, Oct. 23), about 86% of the position notional held by the top 100 traders ranked on 24-hour performance is short. Long positions total about $299 million and short positions about $1.90 billion, a 14% long share. The figures combine the 24-hour top-100 accounts on four exchanges, Hyperliquid, Lighter, dYdX and Pacifica, summed by asset.

In yesterday evening's edition, aggregated at 4:13 p.m. KST, the same 24-hour group held about $245 million long and $3.02 billion short, 92.5% short. Over roughly 15 hours, short notional fell by $1.12 billion, or 37%, and long notional rose by $54 million, taking the short share down by a little over six points. On Hyperliquid, prices over the 24 hours to the aggregation time were slightly lower for the large assets: Bitcoin (BTC) down 0.5%, Ethereum (ETH) down 0.2%, Solana (SOL) down 0.9% and Hyperliquid (HYPE) down 0.6%, while Worldcoin (WLD) fell 11.5%, LIT 7.5%, NEAR 4.4% and Zcash (ZEC) 3.4%. Compared with yesterday evening's price check, BTC and ETH are a little over 1% lower, HYPE and SOL about 2% lower, NEAR 6% lower and ZEC 4.5% lower.

The 7-day group holds about $389 million long and $2.98 billion short, 88% short, close to yesterday evening's 89%. Short notional fell by $223 million and long notional by $13 million, leaving the share about where it was.

The 30-day group holds about $325 million long and $3.41 billion short, 91% short, unchanged from yesterday evening. This is the third edition in a row in which all three groups are more than 85% short. Unrealized results moved from losses to gains in all three groups. The 24-hour group went from a loss of about $64 million to a gain of about $4 million, the 7-day group from a loss of about $44 million to a gain of about $6 million, and the 30-day group from a loss of about $53 million to a gain of about $12 million. With close to nine-tenths of the notional short, this lines up with the main assets trading lower than yesterday evening at the time of the check. Even so, HYPE shorts still carry the largest loss in the 7-day and 30-day groups, about $28.1 million and $41.7 million, and the largest gain in both groups is in ZEC, about $15.4 million and $10.4 million.

For Bitcoin (BTC), the 24-hour group is split almost evenly by headcount, 105 long and 104 short accounts. Yesterday evening it was 77 long and 153 short, 33% long by headcount; long accounts rose by 28 and short accounts fell by 49. By notional it holds about $61 million long and $613 million short, 91% short, with short notional down $323 million from $936 million. The 7-day group holds 107 long and 117 short accounts (48% long by headcount, from 39%), about $105 million long and $966 million short, 90% short. The 30-day group holds 77 long and 147 short (34% long by headcount, from 44%), 95% short, the heaviest short tilt of the three windows. BTC trades at about $80,940 on Hyperliquid.

For Ethereum (ETH), the 24-hour group holds 98 long and 83 short accounts, so long accounts outnumber short accounts, 54% long by headcount. Yesterday evening it was 77 long and 132 short; short accounts fell by 49. By notional it holds about $86 million long and $418 million short, 83% short, down from 96% yesterday evening, the largest fall among the top-20 assets, with short notional less than half of $883 million. The 7-day group holds 82 long and 101 short, about $61 million long and $810 million short, 93% short, and the 30-day group 69 long and 131 short, 91% short. ETH shows the largest unrealized gain in the 24-hour group, about $6.9 million, and losses of about $2.8 million in the 7-day group and $2.0 million in the 30-day group, down from losses of $11 million to $12.5 million yesterday evening.

The largest change in the headcount long ratio within the 7-day group since yesterday evening came in XRP. In the 7-day group XRP went from 26 long and 44 short accounts (37% long by headcount) to 34 long and 33 short (51%), leaving long accounts one ahead. By notional, however, it holds about $3.1 million long and $54.2 million short, 95% short, no different from yesterday evening's 94%. Long accounts have grown in number but are small, while the shorts that remain include large positions even as their count fell. XRP shows an unrealized gain of about $6.2 million, third in the 7-day group after ZEC (about $15.4 million) and LIT (about $7.8 million). XRP fell 1.1% over 24 hours to $1.29 on Hyperliquid.

In the 24-hour group XRP also holds more long than short accounts, 39 to 34 (53% long by headcount, from 37%), and in the 30-day group 29 long and 53 short (35%, from 31%). In all three windows its notional is 92% to 95% short. The largest move the other way in the 7-day group came in LIT, from 48 long and 53 short accounts (48% long by headcount) to 33 long and 58 short (36%), with about $21.5 million long and $22.2 million short, 49% long. Yesterday evening LIT and Monero (XMR, long share 52% to 23%) were the two top-20 assets in the 7-day group with more long than short notional; both now lean short, so no top-20 asset in the 7-day group leans long by notional. In the 24-hour group BNB (57% long) is the only one. By headcount, long accounts outnumber short accounts in ETH, XRP and BTC in the 24-hour group, XRP in the 7-day group and XMR (55%) in the 30-day group.

A drop of 49 short accounts each for BTC and ETH in the 24-hour group, and more than $1.1 billion less short notional, does not mean those accounts closed their shorts. The ranking re-selects its top 100 by trailing 24-hour performance at every aggregation, so 15 hours later many of the accounts that made yesterday evening's top 100 may have been replaced by others. How much the two groups overlap, and whether any single account changed direction, cannot be known without fill records, which were not checked.

A few large positions can also sway the notional shares; BTC's 24-hour group is even by headcount yet 91% short by notional. Holdings on other exchanges or in spot are not aggregated, so hedging cannot be ruled out. Current positions alone do not establish an individual trader's overall strategy or the direction of the market.

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Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only, based on public on-chain data, and does not recommend buying or selling any digital asset or any trading direction. The current positions and past performance of top traders do not guarantee future returns. All investment decisions and their consequences rest with the investor.