Middle East Oil Flows Near Prewar Levels as Estimates Diverge

Oil flows from the Middle East have recovered close to prewar levels during the conflict, but differing measurement scopes produce sharply different estimates of how much crude is moving through the region.

September Middle East oil flows were estimated at 17.5 million barrels per day, equal to 98% of prewar levels. Fuel exports were put at 3 million barrels per day, or 58% of the prewar average.

Flows through the Strait of Hormuz had returned to nearly 13 million barrels per day, reaching late-June highs. Saudi Arabia was the primary contributor to the increase.

A separate estimate placed Persian Gulf oil outflows at 23.3 million barrels per day during the latest week covered in a Sept. 29 analysis. The figure was roughly in line with the region’s 2025 daily average and included tankers operating with their tracking systems switched off.

The numbers are not directly comparable. The 17.5 million-barrel-per-day figure covers Middle East oil flows, while the 23.3 million-barrel-per-day estimate measures broader Persian Gulf outflows and includes so-called dark tanker activity.

The higher flows do not establish that shipping conditions have normalized. The increased tanker crossings reflect the industry’s ability to operate under sustained risk rather than evidence of safer conditions.

Earlier estimates placed Middle East crude and condensate production at 16.6 million barrels per day in August and projected a return to 27 million barrels per day only in early 2027. Crude clearance from the Middle East Gulf was also estimated at 6.1 million barrels per day during one August analysis window, compared with an estimated 15 million-barrel-per-day average through Hormuz in 2025.

The measured scale of the recovery varies with the time window, geographic scope and treatment of vessels operating without active tracking. The latest figures show that supply is moving again, while leaving the region’s shipping risks elevated.