Bitcoin is showing signs of short-term overheating even as key on-chain indicators point toward a broader bullish market cycle, according to CryptoQuant data.
Bitcoin whales realized roughly $614 million in profits in a single day, while traders’ unrealized profit margin climbed to 20.5%, its highest level since June 2025. Rising Bitcoin and XRP exchange inflows also suggest some long-term holders are taking advantage of stronger market liquidity to lock in gains.
Despite the increased profit-taking, CryptoQuant’s longer-term indicators have turned increasingly bullish. Its Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator entered the green “Early Bull” zone, resembling conditions seen in January 2023 before the previous major crypto market uptrend.
The CryptoQuant Bull Score also jumped from 30 to 80 within one week, reaching its highest level since October 2025, when Bitcoin traded near $124,000. The sharp increase suggests underlying market conditions have shifted significantly in favor of buyers, despite near-term selling pressure.
Bernstein has meanwhile raised its long-term Bitcoin outlook. Analysts at the investment firm expect BTC to reach $150,000 by mid-2027 before potentially climbing toward $300,000 in 2029. The forecast is based partly on rising U.S. sovereign debt and expectations that fiat currencies will continue losing purchasing power.
Under Bernstein’s more bullish scenario, Bitcoin could hit $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 in 2029, with a longer-term target of $1 million by 2033. However, the firm lowered its MicroStrategy share price target to $350, citing accelerated equity issuance.
XRP is also receiving support from improving XRP Ledger fundamentals. Ripple’s regulated RLUSD stablecoin is approaching $2 billion in market capitalization and supply, with around $1 billion deployed directly on the XRPL. RLUSD now represents more than 90% of stablecoin activity on the network.
While short-term XRP traders are taking profits around the $1.41-$1.45 range, growing corporate liquidity and stablecoin activity on XRPL could strengthen utility-driven demand and help offset ongoing whale distribution.
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