COIN Stock Faces Bearish Pressure as Iran War Fuels Crypto Crash Fears

Coinbase (COIN) stock has stalled at the critical $200 resistance level as geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the ongoing Iran war continues to weigh heavily on crypto markets. After recovering from February lows of $145, the stock now faces renewed selling pressure that could erase recent gains entirely.

The conflict has sent crude oil prices sharply higher, with Brent crude climbing to $100 and WTI reaching $95 per barrel after Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojitaba Khamenei signaled intentions for a prolonged military engagement. Analysts warn that if Iran weaponizes its control over the Strait of Hormuz, oil could surge past $200 — a scenario directly at odds with the Trump administration's preference for prices near $50.

Even coordinated efforts to stabilize markets, including the IEA releasing 400 million barrels from strategic reserves and discussions around suspending the Jones Act, have failed to meaningfully cap prices. Rising oil costs are stoking inflation fears, with analyst Kobeissi projecting that sustained oil prices above $95 could push US inflation to 3.4%, well above February's reported 2.4% reading. That trajectory makes Federal Reserve rate cuts increasingly unlikely, a historically bearish combination for risk assets including cryptocurrencies.

Coinbase remains fundamentally tied to crypto market performance despite its expansion into stocks and prediction markets. Transaction revenue already dropped from $1.5 billion in Q4 2024 to $982 million in Q4 2025, reflecting weakening activity. Polymarket now puts the probability of Bitcoin falling to $55,000 this year at 71%.

Technically, COIN is trading below its 100-day EMA and appears to be forming both an island reversal and an inverted cup-and-handle pattern — two bearish signals pointing toward a retest of $145 support. A breakdown below that level could open the door to $100.